I was gone for most of the day yesterday so I missed the comments on my post until now -- but here's the reality (as I see it) about the future of 3D:
- Infinitely re-usable assets gradually building up in large quantities
I'm not taking about the 3DW here -- although with some effort it could morph into such a place... but I mean more like FF/Turbosquid/Dosch/etc.
- Increased utility of 3D scanning of real world objects
For instance imagine Google street view, but scanned in 3D -- obviously the technology is not to that place yet in terms of affordability/ease of use/accessibility... but it is coming. Tools like this will become the new norm: http://www.photosculpt.net/.
- Parametric Modeling becoming more and more commonplace
Not much to say here... this seems like a good thing, and it is in-terms of efficiency and quality control -- but the side effect is it lowers the entry level for people to produce reasonable quality 3D.
Taking those things into consideration you have to say that for the most part direct 3D modeling will eventually become minority concern. With the wide availability of creating a huge range of 3D images without learning any real modeling skills already a very real phenomena at places like DAZ/Poser.
I've watch several very large workforces, in diverse creative fields, be completely displaced by the steady march of technology -- the majority usually do not see it coming or do not adequately prepare... the time will eventually come for the 3D modeler as well.
That said, this is likely 15-20 years off at this point... so it's not a terribly pressing issue right now. But the one thing you can count on with the march of technology is that manual work (by humans) will be replaced at some point... automation is always the ultimate goal.
Creativity and adaptability are the only things that can keep a person or software from becoming a victim of the steady march of technology. Here at SketchUp we have the Ruby developers -- essentially a huge extension of the dev team that can take the software in any given direction it might need to go (to keep up), and in ways the SketchUp dev team is either unwilling or unable (and I'm not sure which is more damning) to do.
Extensibility is the key -- Photoshop is another great example, a big part of why Photoshop thrived over the years was plugins... take that away and Photoshop would/could have been replaced by now.
Building Maker is limited by design -- there is no extensibility that I know of, so it is doomed to fail(eventually) when its designed purpose is no longer relevant.
Best,
Jason.