The Real Inconvenient Truth
-
While most of us view China's one-child policy as some of the ultimate government meddling out there, the point in the article has some real truth. People just seem to assume that there is room enough on the planet for everyone, that agriculture will miraculously find ways to ramp up production to feed everyone (despite the destruction of farmland for homes/businesses), that the Earth will absorb all of the garbage we throw away or pump into the air, or that the Earth has enough material to supply all of our growing needs for everything (buildings, fuel, air, food, raw material in general). Even businesses want to find ways to get rid of employees in exchange for automation, where will the jobs come from when entire segments of a production line can be monitored with one employee in an a room full of buttons?
I think we are headed for a bad situation that will be contributed to by overpopulation. Many view the ability to have half-dozen kids as a right. I disagree.
However, I don't think we'll need to do much about it. Once we hit a certain limit, famine and fights over resources will cause enough war and disease to thin the herds substantially. Maybe we'll have learned something by then.
-
-
I can't say if China's issues would be solved this way, but I think a softer approach is to raise the education level of people around the world, especially women. Then the birth rate goes down naturally. I believe we do need lower population growth rates overall, not because we don't need children but we need less at time than we used to, or as recently needed in most evolving cultures around the world.
-
@unknownuser said:
I think a softer approach is to raise the education level of people around the world, especially women
?! LOL
-
@linea said:
@unknownuser said:
I think a softer approach is to raise the education level of people around the world, especially women
?! LOL
It's been shown that the birth rate is lower and communities are stronger when the women are more educated. I guess I should say "educating girls, and supporting their rights." Allow them to go to school, instead of treating them like property. Not to your liking? What's your idea?
-
Interesting subject.
I think it has to be a balancing act. Our increasing numbers brought about much of human innovation over the the past millennium when population numbers demanded better food & shelter production methods. However there are limited amounts resources on the planet but again there are other planets!
There was a time in human society when only the fittest survived but this is not now the case with the intervention of the state, particularly in Western World societies over the past few centuries.
I have no idea what human population Planet Earth can reasonably sustain whereas I can find some figures for most all other species. In the case of other animal species their population figures relate directly to their support environment, amount of available food and number of predators. Intelligence in other species would not appear to be a major survival factor in their propagation, compare whale numbers to rat numbers.
Humans have the ability to quickly adapt to their environment, some groups more so than others and education would appear to be a key factor in this as it supplies the tools to get the survival job done efficiently.
I have no problem with women producing 6, 8, 10, plus offspring or men producing hundreds. I do however have a slight problem when they expect me to play a large part in rearing their offspring for them. What I mean by this is that while I agree with a certain amount of State support, I do not agree it should encourage large families. For me this is moving away from the 'survival of the fitted' which is a natural law.
Okay, there could be collective 'survival of the fitted' but this would require a lot more intervention of Government, possibly along the lines of high IQ reproduction but again high IQ in itself without what I will call the 'drive gene' is not enough. I don't think it will happen currently as it appears the people that end up in Government have the 'drive gene' in more abundance that high IQs.
Mike
-
Mike
I think you need to clarify that auld irish speak "rareing" for the non rural Irish people on this forum!!!
Made me laugh imagining you saying that whilst looking over a gate into a field full of cattle with a stalk of grass in your mouth !!!:roflmao:
-
It is a symptom of our current human condition to take moral issue with global and remote issues while we show minimal commitment to addressing or taking an active stance against shameful instances of neglect, abuse and harm that exist in our own so called first world countries, cities and villages. It's a lazy, impotent and arrogant morality that criticizes the dispensation in another culture when we are not willing to actively become involved in the issues that affect our own communities.
-
@dermotcoll said:
Mike
I think you need to clarify that auld irish speak "rareing" for the non rural Irish people on this forum!!!
Made me laugh imagining you saying that whilst looking over a gate into a field full of cattle with a stalk of grass in your mouth !!!:roflmao:
I would not mind having a nice little piece of land with a few cattle. Maybe a way to get self sufficient! Yes, you are right, rearing or as its pronounced here 'rareing' being the upbringing youngsters.Bruce, Trying to 'educating' men would be a waste of time. While some would see the logic in limiting their procreation activity, I imagine there would be quite a contingent that would be more than happy to 'spread their genes' far and wide.
Society is most definitely changing http://www.usatoday.com/news/health/2009-05-13-unmarriedbirths_N.htm . Last year approx. 33% of births here in Ireland were to single women. I dont know what the stats are on whether or not they were in partnerships but would be interested in learning. I have no problem with this but would like to see the fathers supporting their own children should it be needed. It might also be an idea to advise / supply some sort of blood testing service to the baby makers in order that we won't end up having brothers and sisters copulating and producing in the future.
-
Very interesting subject
http://www.economist.com/opinion/displaystory.cfm?story_id=14744915
http://www.economist.com/displaystory.cfm?story_id=14743589Both are well worth a read for some interesting observations.
-
Never forget the theories of Malthus.
-
@unknownuser said:
THOMAS MALTHUS first published his âEssay on the Principle of Populationâ, in which he forecast that population growth would outstrip the worldâs food supply, in 1798. His timing was unfortunate, for something started happening around then which made nonsense of his ideas. As industrialisation swept through what is now the developed world, fertility fell sharply, first in France, then in Britain, then throughout Europe and America. When people got richer, families got smaller; and as families got smaller, people got richer.
Now, something similar is happening in developing countries. Fertility is falling and families are shrinking in placesâ such as Brazil, Indonesia, and even parts of Indiaâthat people think of as teeming with children. As our briefing shows, the fertility rate of half the world is now 2.1 or lessâthe magic number that is consistent with a stable population and is usually called âthe replacement rate of fertilityâ. Sometime between 2020 and 2050 the worldâs fertility rate will fall below the global replacement rate.
The same goes for all the talk of resource wars over water....
http://www.economist.com/sciencetechnology/displaystory.cfm?story_id=14743791I think Diane Francis, the author of the article in the OP, fails to see the world as it really is.
-
@petercharles said:
Never forget the theories of Malthus.
Oh boy! How can we forget? We now have (once humanist) David Attenborough now feeding this Malthian nonsense to us, via the BBC's Horizon science programme. The programme was rather biased, with no opposing views about what we have and can achieve as human beings, and almost read as a party political broadcast for the green party. The imagery of the programme used that clever telephoto lens trick, which gives the impression of people, tightly packed together. I'm sorry Sir David, this is sensationalist. I don't buy it!
Malthus predicted that the population would spiral out of control, and by the 19th century we would all be dead. He was wrong. Similarly, in the 1960's the American biologist Paul R. Ehrlich, also predicted that by the 1980's we would all be dead, as a result of an over populated world. Again, Ehrlich was wrong.
OT, but also extremely interesting is this article carried out by Experian and reported by the BBC about those who are most likely to be concerned about climate change. If you can see the video, that is also worth watching, as it shows that those in the UK who are on lesser incomes, are more concerned about education and hospitals than energy saving light bulbs.
-
I find the article on the desalination process interesting, but the article takes into no account who will pay for this technology to be installed around the world as thirsty cities, factories and agriculture use more and more water. It also fails to take into account the expense of cleaning the water once it has been used. No minor expense for industrialized nations, all but impossible for impoverished nations.
-
tf design wrote:
@unknownuser said:
If you can see the video, that is also worth watching, as it shows that those in the UK who are on lesser incomes, are more concerned about education and hospitals than energy saving light bulbs.
I have to say, living in Hull, one of the poorest cities in the UK, that that is a very black and white view of the facts. Just because people on lower incomes are less likely to buy as many energy saving bulbs doesn't mean they are any more responsible for climate change.
For a start, energy saving light bulbs, seem to be one of the token gestures that our government can endorse, while they make excuses for not tackling massive corporate polluters and energy wasters. If they wanted to make the bulbs affordable, simple, just ban the old style and the manufacturers would have to lower the price. Secondly, most energy saving light bulbs contain mercury, so in the future we have a disposal problem on our hands. source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Compact_fluorescent_lamp
Now about that lesser income thing:
Hull has a long tradition of cycling, 14% of journeys to work are by bike, because of financial necessity and relatively low levels of car ownership, Hull has the 6th highest level of cycling in the UK. source: http://www.tmsconsultancy.co.uk/hull/SaferCycling.docAlso Hull has a huge demand for allotments because more and more people want to grow their own food - I do this because I enjoy it but I know plenty of people who do it because its the only way they can afford healthy food. I'm very pleased to say that the local McDonalds, which was just opposite a large school, shut down over a year ago due to a lack of custom. source:http://static.hullcc.gov.uk/hullinprint/archive/october2008/mike_met_arthur.php
If you can't afford to heat your house 24/7, you put a sweater on. Poorer people, in my experience, whether they consider themselves green or not, know quite a bit about resources and how to save them, probably more than the average 4x4 driver in Chelsea.
-
I've been intrigued by the argument that normal filament bulbs are "bad" and fluorescent bulbs are "good".
I have a 40W fluorescent TUBE that has lasted 20 years. I originally put it in my kitchen then moved it into the garage. But NONE of my fluorescent BULBS have lasted any longer than a normal filament bulb. So on a purchase price basis they are a poor investment.Much is made of the filament bulb "wasting" energy, but I don't see that this is true in my house. I have loft insulation, cavity wall insulation and double glazed windows in an attempt to keep in heat. A recent TV programme explained that the filament bulb wasted 99% of it's energy input as heat. To illustrate they 'roasted' a chicken in a very well insulated box heated by one 100 watt bulb. Yes it was cooked (but steamed not roast, and looked very soggy). But in truth all this proved is that the better the insulation the more heat you contain and if the heat input exceeds the heat out flow then over a period of time the internal temperature will continually rise until steady state condition is reached. Sorry, in my house any heat generated from filament bulbs just means that the central heating has a bit less heating to do. And my lights are only switched on when it's dark which is also when the temperature drops (summer here is one week sometime during the months of May to September!).
-
@unknownuser said:
Educating Women?? How bout educating the men who impregnate.
Yeah, I get it. But education is empowering and leads to more equality, then to more control of one's life; and to respect and power in society, for people as a class, whether poor, minority, or women.
-
@linea said:
I have to say, living in Hull, one of the poorest cities in the UK, that that is a very black and white view of the facts. Just because people on lower incomes are less likely to buy as many energy saving bulbs doesn't mean they are any more responsible for climate change.
Facts? What 'facts'? These are the facts! Also, don't you mean less responsible? If the government introduce this legislation, like usual, "the poor will get poorer, and the rich, richer". Okay that's a cliche, but it's true isn't it? I think this is more about debt owed by countries such as Africa than anything else, the western world finding new ways to lift the massive unrepayable debt owed by developing countries? And, I should mention, denying nations such as China and India to an empire of their own- but that is a far wider picture, so I'm not going into that now!
@linea said:
For a start, energy saving light bulbs, seem to be one of the token gestures that our government can endorse, while they make excuses for not tackling massive corporate polluters and energy wasters. If they wanted to make the bulbs affordable, simple, just ban the old style and the manufacturers would have to lower the price. Secondly, most energy saving light bulbs contain mercury, so in the future we have a disposal problem on our hands. source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Compact_fluorescent_lamp
FWIW, I was being facetious about energy saving lightbulbs. Sure, these bulbs add an advantage because they both save on energy and are cheaper to run, but the technology still isn't there for this type of bulb. They emit a difficult to read in light, and have a long warmup time. Most as well can't be dimmed, and of course, their colour temperature is all wrong, fluorescent is imo, a horrible kind of light- normally showing up as green on photographic film. What I am saying is that change won't happen all at once, it's going to take a while, however those with a larger, more disposable income won't see this- hence the article. We never mention that common lightbulbs emit heat, and that heat also contributes to the overall heat ambience of a well insulated house. If the light source is cold, then that heat will need to be generated by other means- burning wood, or using electricity. Wood fires in built up areas were banned in the 50's (50's?), because of smog. Perhaps it was later than that? I like burning wood, but wouldn't it be better to create power from other sources, such as nuclear? then we could always power our hospitals and offices, the places that use the most heat for inhabitants?
@linea said:
Now about that lesser income thing:
Hull has a long tradition of cycling, 14% of journeys to work are by bike, because of financial necessity and relatively low levels of car ownership, Hull has the 6th highest level of cycling in the UK. source: http://www.tmsconsultancy.co.uk/hull/SaferCycling.docI am a keen cyclist, when I am not carrying kids to school (I own a folding bicycle- a great piece of American engineering, made by Dahon), but because of this governments current obsession with SATS and school ratings, I have to travel to TWO different schools, each three miles apart from one another, and in order to keep these 'good SATS' points, OFSTED insist that a passing school has no late children. As as result, I am ordered to arrive on time so delivery on bicycles are completely out of the question (My youngest being at a nursery- the only place we could get without paying a fortune in fees, is at the top of a large hill). So two kids on a bicycle and an adult? No thanks.
@linea said:
Also Hull has a huge demand for allotments because more and more people want to grow their own food - I do this because I enjoy it but I know plenty of people who do it because its the only way they can afford healthy food. I'm very pleased to say that the local McDonalds, which was just opposite a large school, shut down over a year ago due to a lack of custom. source:http://static.hullcc.gov.uk/hullinprint/archive/october2008/mike_met_arthur.php
Having an allotment is a great idea, as long as you are able to maintain its upkeep. My wife and I are both on fairly low incomes, we both work full time to pay the rather high mortgage on this house, while supporting two kids. Running an allotment is back breaking work (I know, as we used to have one). Have you ever considered that? Industrialisation happened, because we couldn't feed a nation. It is a middle class fantasy to think that go back to the old days is a good idea. Do you not realise why we have a better quality of life these days? We have food bought to our tables because of agricultural industrialisation. If you want to spend most of your life growing food, and you have the time to do it, great! But if you don't, then what are you supposed to do? It is wrong to assume that all people can run allotments. BTW, I'm not surprised Muckdonalds has shut down, because their burgers taste like ironed carpet sandwiched between grandma's old soggy slippers. Burger King is a far better choice of hamburger!
@linea said:
If you can't afford to heat your house 24/7, you put a sweater on. Poorer people, in my experience, whether they consider themselves green or not, know quite a bit about resources and how to save them, probably more than the average 4x4 driver in Chelsea.
"Put a sweater on"? What about the sick? Do you tell them to "put a sweater on"? Try telling my 56 year old sister-in-law, who's in a wheelchair with MS, to "put a sweater on"! I think you'll find that it is only a select few who actually have their heating on 24/7 anyway, and throughout the house. Most people restrict heat to one part of the house, because heating the whole house is prohibitively expensive anyway. The sad truth, is that people die from the cold more than they die from warmth, and are found wearing jumpers (sweaters).
And, what's wrong with having a 4x4? What about an electric or hybrid 4x4? I am 6'5" tall. I don't fit most bicycles or small cars. I'd LOVE a 4x4!! Bring on and share the wealth! I could fit the kids in there, and not have back and neck ache. Do you not think that this forward thinking technology is not a good idea? It takes burning coal to produce a bicycle, and a lot of it too. If you want to cut back on industrialisation, you may as well stop producing bikes, because by this logic, the manufacture of bicycles are no different to cars.
Climate change has been happening for as long as planets have been in orbit around the sun. We need to step forwards, not backwards. You should read what Brunel did for industry. With good engineering, we have made the world a safer and better place to live. The current climate change debate contradicts this, believing that we should return to the 19th century. Do you really want to go back in time? I saw James May (TopGear fame) on "Have I got news for you" on Friday. I'm afraid I agree with James. I don't really give a stuff about climate change. I have a degree in engineering, and I know human beings are quite capable of engineering themselves out of trouble, as they have done for the last umpteen years. I am a designer, and a modernist too. i hope to keep it that way. I'm looking forward to the future!
-
@unknownuser said:
FWIW, I was being facetious about energy saving lightbulbs
yes you were
@unknownuser said:
If you can't afford to heat your house 24/7, you put a sweater on. Poorer people, in my experience, whether they consider themselves green or not, know quite a bit about resources and how to save them, probably more than the average 4x4 driver in Chelsea
admittedly, so was I
@unknownuser said:
Having an allotment is a great idea, as long as you are able to maintain its upkeep. My wife and I are both on fairly low incomes, we both work full time to pay the rather high mortgage on this house... If you want to spend most of your life growing food, and you have the time to do it, great!
My situation is not so different to yours. I work a 40-50 hour week and my girlfriend works about the same. We have a mortgage too. I spend about an hour and a half a week tending to plants, once you have a good set up, the plants look after themselves.
We do have a car, I agree it is a necessity, what provoked me is your belief that people on lower incomes are somehow more responsible, you have presented no facts to back this up.
@unknownuser said:
Do you not think that this forward thinking technology is not a good idea? It takes burning coal to produce a bicycle, and a lot of it too. If you want to cut back on industrialisation,
Have I said anything about cutting back on industrialisation?
@unknownuser said:
you may as well stop producing bikes, because by this logic, the manufacture of bicycles are no different to cars.
I'm not going to bother blowing a hole in that ridiculous argument.
@unknownuser said:
I don't really give a stuff about climate change.
fine
Advertisement